NQ FUTURES: Trigger 25,565.00, Pivot 25,519.50, Guardrail 25,408.00 Date of Article(11/05/2025)

A hedge fund managers take on the afternoon trading session.

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

This Section of the Article is for Free Subscribers.

Executive Summary

NASDAQ 8hr Chart with AAVWAP’s, MTF RSI, MTF Stochastic RSI, MACD, ZLEMAs, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, AAVP’s, Woodie’s CCI, Money Flow Index, and On-Balance Volume

Today’s operating map is built from the volume profile triad on the five-minute view: value-area high at 25,565.00, point of control at 25,519.50, and value-area low at 25,408.00. We treat these as the session’s practical trigger, pivot, and guardrail, respectively. The long idea improves on a fifteen-minute close and successful retest above 25,565.00, with intermediate targets at 25,596.00 and 25,691.50, and an eventual stretch toward the 26,096–26,103 developing point-of-control band. The short idea favors either failure at 25,565.00 or loss of 25,519.50 that accepts price back into value and opens 25,408.00 and 25,282.00.

Desk Note: use the triggers and invalidations verbatim, and adjust directional bias in real time with the DXY, VINMO, ZB-T-Bonds, and XAU.

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

We continue from NQ Futures Playbook: Trigger 26,018.75, Pivot 25,955, Guardrail 25,767.5 (11/04/2025), which framed directional bias around a higher trigger and a four-hour trend guardrail. The improvement today is a tighter, session-driven map: we explicitly designate the five-minute volume profile’s value-area high, point of control, and value-area low as trigger, pivot, and guardrail. This simplifies execution, reduces discretion at the edges, and shortens the feedback loop to the fifteen-minute close and retest logic.

Key Levels / Takeaways

• Spot band: 25,589.25–25,589.75. [Fact]

• Local high: 25,596.00. [Fact]

• Prior swing high visible: 25,893.50. [Fact]

• Local low: 25,282.00. [Fact]

VRVP, five-minute (middle pane)

• Value-area high (VAH): 25,565.00 → Session trigger. [Fact]

• Point of control (POC): 25,519.50 → Session pivot. [Fact]

• Value-area low (VAL): 25,408.00 → Session guardrail. [Fact]

AAVP (auto-anchored volume profile)

• Developing POC, five-minute (right pane): 26,096.13. [Fact]

• Developing POC, one-hour (right pane): 26,102.75 (auxiliary 26,102.63). [Fact]

• Developing VAL, five-minute (right pane): 25,691.50. [Fact]

EMA ladder (labels on panes)

• EMA: 25,542.44. [Fact]

• EMA-based moving average: 25,498.15. [Fact]

Takeaways

• Using VAH/POC/VAL as trigger/pivot/guardrail converts the profile into a mechanical roadmap for the session. [Theory]

• 25,691.50 is the first structurally important upside objective after a clean reclaim of 25,565.00. [Theory]

• The 26,096–26,103 band is the stretch objective where developing point-of-control supply is likely to respond. [Theory]

Decision Tree ( Free )

• If a fifteen-minute bar closes above 25,565.00 and a quick retest holds at or above 25,565.00, consider a long toward 25,596.00, then 25,691.50, with a stretch toward 26,096–26,103. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back below 25,519.50. [Theory]

• If price trades down into 25,519.50 and momentum turns up on the retest, consider a bounce back toward 25,565.00, with a stretch toward 25,596.00. Invalidate on decisive loss of 25,498.15. [Theory]

• If a fifteen-minute bar closes below 25,519.50 and holds, consider a short toward 25,408.00, then 25,282.00. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back above 25,542.44. [Theory]

• If price probes 25,408.00–25,282.00 and stalls, consider a tactical bounce to 25,519.50. Invalidate on a decisive break below 25,282.00. [Theory]

Decision Tree ( Paid )