NQ Futures Playbook: Trigger 26,018.75, Pivot 25,955, Guardrail 25,767.5 (11/04/2025)

A hedge fund lunch memo to our inner circle.

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

This Section of the Article is for Free Subscribers.

Executive summary

NASDAQ 8hr Chart with AAVWAP’s, MTF RSI, MTF Stochastic RSI, MACD, ZLEMAs, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, AAVP’s, Woodie’s CCI, Money Flow Index, and On-Balance Volume

Bias starts neutral with a short-side tilt while the United States Dollar Index hovers near 100 and price sits below the intraday moving-average ladders and the session’s volume-weighted average price.

A clean fifteen-minute close and retest above the local resistance area around 25,912 would open a path back into the developing point of control at 26,101.75 and the developing value-area high at 26,206.75.

Acceptance below the recent session low near 25,844.75 would hand control to sellers toward the lower shelves.

Desk note:

Use the triggers and invalidations verbatim. Adjust directional bias in real time with the United States Dollar Index, the in-house volatility monitor, Treasury-bond futures, and Gold.

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

We build directly on NQ Futures Playbook: Trigger 26,018.75, Pivot 25,955, Guardrail 25,767.5 (11/03/2025). Two improvements today:

1. We promote 26,101.75 (developing point of control) to a primary continuation check because value is migrating there on your auto-anchored profile.

2. We fix invalidations to the most recent session low near 25,844.75 rather than a moving average, so risk is anchored to a price that traded real volume rather than a calculated line.

Key levels

Pulled directly from charts.

• Auto-anchored Volume Profile developing value-area high (VAH): 26,206.75.

• Auto-anchored Volume Profile developing point of control (POC): 26,101.75.

• Auto-anchored Volume Profile developing value-area low (VAL): 26,012.75.

• Recent swing high on the stacked one-hour views: 26,399.50.

• One-hour exponential moving-average cluster: about 25,972.5 with a common tag around 25,967.00.

• Most recent bid/ask ladder print block: 25,896.25 by 25,906.75.

• Recent session low tag: about 25,844.75.

Context: Session VWAP bands have been mostly below pre-open price and are sloping down, and the lower volume “shelves” remain visible near 25,592, 25,341, 25,323, and 25,062 as potential magnets if sellers stay in control.

Decision tree for NASDAQ Futures(Free)

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• If a fifteen-minute bar closes above 26,206.75 (developing VAH) and a quick retest holds at or above 26,101.75 (developing POC), consider a long toward 26,206.75, then a measured push toward the prior swing zone that begins far above at 26,399.50. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back below 26,101.75.

• If price pulls back into the 26,101.75 POC and forms a higher low above 26,012.75 (VAL), consider a rotation long back to 26,206.75. Invalidate on decisive acceptance below 26,012.75.

• If a fifteen-minute bar closes below 25,844.75 (recent session low) and then fails a quick reclaim, consider a short toward 25,896.25–25,906.75 to test for supply, then into 26,012.75 and, if acceptance continues, the shelves at 25,592 → 25,341 → 25,323 → 25,062. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back above 25,906.75.

• If price tests 26,206.75 and clearly rejects with lower highs and weakening tape, consider a fade back toward 26,101.75, then 26,012.75. Invalidate on acceptance above 26,206.75.

Decision tree for NASDAQ Futures(Paid)