Silver, Fibonacci Fever, and the One Signal That Actually Matters: Industry Is Prepaying Supply
Silver just did the thing it always does in the late innings. It stopped being a precious metal story and became a market structure story.
Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.
When Price Goes Vertical, Two Tribes Instantly Appear
The chart mystics who love drawing Fibonacci spirals to the heavens. As well as the supply nerds, who are asking what companies are short on physical silver, and what contracts are being written to secure the silver that those companies need for production.
Right now, both tribes are loud. The Fibonacci crowd is chanting price targets like $89 and $144. The supply crowd is pointing to something far more important than a spiral overlay. Industrial buyers who are willing to finance the restart of production to lock up the silver output that their business needs. The second signal is rarer and is a tangible and actionable signal in the market.
The Fibonacci Spiral: A Clean Story That Humans Love
The Fibonacci sequence (13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…) is real math, and traders do what traders do. Traders attempt to map human behavior using tools like Fibonacci retracement levels to estimate where crowds of investors/traders might hesitate, or take profits, or panic buy/sell. That’s not crazy. It’s just not the physics of trading.
Fibonacci tools can be useful as a crowd behavior ruler. Fibonacci tools are a way to define support/resistance zones and avoid trading purely off of vibes. The leap from crowds’ cluster around levels, to silver must go to $144 because the spiral says so is where stock analysis can transition into something more akin to astrology with a Bloomberg terminal. This is why I prefer using Volume Profiles to determine where the crowds cluster. The Value Area (VA) and the Point of Control (POC) which is the level in the VA where the most trades took place in the markets structure.
Traders who use a disciplined way to apply Fibonacci tools are more successful than those who treat them as gospel. Real traders treat Fibonacci tools as a risk management scaffold. Meaning traders use Fibonacci tools to define zones, invalidations, and stops. Traders don’t treat Fibonacci extension levels as destiny either, but rather as guidelines to plan out their trades based on structure.
The Real Tell is Samsungs’ C&T Prepaying for Mine Output
Now for the part that actually changes the texture of the market. Silver Storm Mining has announced it has entered into a $7 million prepaid offtake financing with subsidiaries of Samsung C&T to restart operations at the La Parrilla silver mine complex in Durango, Mexico. The deal includes an offtake for 100% of lead, silver, and zinc concentrates for two years! SilverStorm Mining
Let’s translate that into English. This isn’t a retail Reddit mob. This isn’t a “paper silver” hot take. This is Samsung tied to real world industrial supply chains deciding that securing future metal is worth wiring money for, for today’s prices. This is a huge tell that silver and silver mining companies are poised to explode to the upside even more so than they are right now.
The structure matters. In project finance, an offtake agreement is basically a buyer saying, “I will purchase output that hasn’t been produced yet,” which helps the producer finance the project. It’s one of the cleanest ways markets signal scarcities without a politician holding a press conference.
Even the terms scream adult supervision. The facility is secured, priced off SOFR. 1 month of SOFR + 4.75% per the company’s release and backed by collateral/security on assets. SilverStorm Mining
Is $7 million “big” in global commodity finance? No. But signals aren’t about size, they’re about direction. This is what it looks like when the marginal buyer stops being “investor demand” and starts being “Needing physical supply certainty.”
That’s how squeezes are born. They are not from one heroic whale, but rather a plethora of small to midsized contract buyers who have been quietly removing optionality from the system.
The Macro Backdrop: Deficits, Industrial Pull, and Policy Distortions
The Silver Institute reported industrial demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces of silver in 2024. The silver market ran a structural deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024 and a much larger cumulative deficit across 2021 to 2024. The Silver Institute
Meanwhile, Reuters reported silver was pushed above $65/oz and printed a record high of around $66.87/oz in early December 2025 and as of writing this article silver has pushed up to $69.464/oz and is poised to break $70 tomorrow with the bull flag that formed on the chart today.
Silver has a strong investment demand and a strong fundamental backdrop that includes supply deficits and industrial demand that is tied to AI data centers, solar cells, and EVs. This is paired with the typical silver warning label. Silver is volatile and it can correct viciously. Stop losses are always a must but traders/investors should be using them when volatility is. spiking. Reuters
Markets are information driven machines until policy makers jam a screwdriver into the gears.
Two policy choices are worth watching:
The first being that the U.S. added silver to its final 2025 List of Critical Minerals. That’s not a blog rumor it is a USGS and Federal Register level of officialness. USGS
Once something becomes critical, it gets dragged into the world of subsidies, stockpiles, and tariff chess. I.E. silver is at risk of intervention.
Intervention in silver doesn’t remove its scarcity. It only moves silvers scarcity around. Which actually only delays price signals and creates second order distortions or unintended consequences. Unfortunately, investors don’t get stability. Instead, investors get mispricing now and volatility later. Policy can compress the spring, but it doesn’t repeal gravity.
Why Silver Moves Like a Psycho Cousin of Gold
Silver’s personality is structural. It has a smaller market which is less liquid than gold. It has heavy industrial linkage (it’s not just a monetary metal cosplay). Silvers supply is often constrained because much of silver production is a byproduct of other metals, meaning price doesn’t instantly summon new supply from mining. Reuters
That combination creates a regime where, once price clears a long range, it tends to overshoot. The same reflexivity that makes Fibonacci targets look “accurate” is usually just volatility plus crowded positioning.
So yes, silver hitting $89 and $144 are conceivable as psychological magnets in the mania phase of a trend.
The path silver typically takes is the point. Silver rarely walks to targets. Instead, it sprints, faceplants, and then sprints again.
How to Think About Positioning Without Joining a Silver Cult
If investors are trading this through silver futures or a related investment instrument, their edge won’t come from predicting the next Fibonacci number. Their edge comes from respecting volatility and choosing a structure that keeps investors solvent.
Here’s a clean framework:
Base case: trend continuation with violent pullbacks
Treat upside continuation as plausible while spot prices for silver are making higher highs and higher lows. Use Fibonacci levels or prior breakout ranges as decision zones, rather than prophecy.
Bullish Case: Physical Tightness Meets Investor Reflexivity
The more offtake and prepaid deals that appear, such as the one with Samsung, will cause silver inventories to tighten in the wrong places at the wrong times. Silver overshoots because marginal liquidity is thin. When the next wave of buyers arrives, there aren’t enough offers sitting nearby. That means price has to jump levels to find sellers. That’s why silver doesn’t walk to new highs. It gaps, spikes, and then mean-reverts like it’s offended by geometry.
Bearish case: Liquidation Cascade
If a macro shock hits and gold drops. Silver drops even harder because it amplifies the moves made by gold. Reuters. Overleveraged longs get forced out through liquidations and the spiral to $144 crowd starts to discover what a drawdown in silver feels like.
The only universal rule investors should follow is to size their positions so that they can survive the bearish case without needing a bailout themselves. That’s where personal accountability as an investor/trader comes into the mix. In market terms, it’s the difference between a trade and a tragedy.
The Takeaway: The Spiral is Entertainment and Contracts are Intelligence
I’m not here to mock charting because I use technical analysis tools all of the time. However, when investors see a real industrial player financing supply and locking in output, that matters more than any technical overlay.
This is where fundamental analysis beats out technical analysis. The Fibonacci spiral is a story about where price might pause. The Samsung C&T offtake is a story about who needs metal badly enough to write checks right now. In markets, stories move crowds, but contracts are what move supply, and supply is the part that can bite an investor.
Educational disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing—especially in futures, options, and leveraged instruments—carry significant risk, including the risk of total loss. Silver can be highly volatile, and most short-term or intraday traders lose money over time. Consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified, licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
Glossary and Further Reading
Content Classification
Fact
Silver Storm’s US$7.0m prepaid offtake financing with Samsung C&T subsidiaries, including 100% of concentrates for two years, and key facility terms. SilverStorm Mining
Silver added to the final 2025 U.S. critical minerals list. USGS
Silver Institute figures for 2024 industrial demand and structural deficit. The Silver Institute
Reuters-reported record silver prices above $65 and commentary on drivers/volatility. Reuters
Theory
Offtake-style behavior is an early-warning indicator of tightening physical markets and reduced optionality.
Speculation
Specific upside targets like $89 or $144 being achieved, and the timing/path to reach them.
