NQ Playbook — From the desk of a Hedge fund Manager to his Staff (10/23/2025)

Today’s NQ playbook in one picture: precise gates from DXY & VINMO, targets by hour (10–4 ET), and the risk controls we’re actually using on the desk.

Oct 23, 2025

Table of Contents (ToC hyperlinks only work on desktop)

Zoomed panel: the “If → Then” triggers you’ll use intraday. Tap to expand. From the CIO to our inner circle. Use this as today’s mechanical Trading plan.

Executive Summary & Decision Tree

Bottom line: NQ remains in an up-channel with a shallow corrective slope. Bulls control if we reclaim the 20-EMA on the 4h with RSI > 50; bears only take over on a confirmed 4h close below ~24,880 (200-SMA shelf / profile ledge).

Decision tree (mechanical):

If 4h close > 20-EMA and RSI ≥ 50 → Go long on first pullback to 25,05x–25,12x
Targets: 25,27x → 25,33x; stretch 25,45x.
Invalidation: 4h close back < 25,00x or StochRSI bearish cross under the 20-EMA.
If stuck between 20-EMA and 200-SMA (~24,9xx) → Trade balance (fade edges → mid back to 25,05x–25,12x).
If 4h close < 24,88x → Go short on failed retest 24,88x–24,94x
Targets: 24,76x → 24,70x; stretch 24,55x.
Invalidation: reclaim/close > 25,00x.

Notes from our charts: Stochastic RSI shows bullish divergence and curl; EFI improving from negative. These are constructive but require the 20-EMA reclaim to monetize.

Market Regime & Levels (NQ)

Structure: Rising regression channel; shallow pullback held the 200-SMA on the 4h (fact on the chart).
Resistance cluster: 25,170–25,330 (double-top risk).
Control zone: 25,050–25,120 (first pullback buy if momentum confirms).
Supports: 24,880–24,940 (weekly/daily refs + 200-SMA), then 24,700–24,760 (volume shelf).

Fact/Theory audit (based on your annotations):

200-SMA support & 20-EMA overhead = Fact (visible).
Bullish StochRSI divergence = Fact (indicator state).
“200-SMA scoops price higher” = Theory (probabilistic).
“Double-top” = Theory until rejection confirms.
“Institutional shakeout” narrative = Not evidentiary (motive cannot be verified from price alone).

Cross-Asset Signals: DXY & VINMO Integration

We layer two filters over NQ:

DXY (US Dollar Index): risk-assets trade best when DXY is soft or below prior day’s value-area high; a rising DXY headwind reduces our upside sizing.
VINMO (Cboe Near-Term VIX): elevated short-dated volatility skews returns left-tail; falling VINMO is a tailwind for trend-continuation.

Operating rules (summation model):

Net bias = NQ signal ± DXY adjustment ± VINMO adjustment
DXY rising + VINMO rising → cut long size / favor fades.
DXY flat or falling + VINMO falling → add to trend trades on confirmations.

Timed Trade Scenarios (NY Time)

Scenarios

Uptick = 4h reclaim > 20-EMA and intraday hold of 25,05x–25,12x → push 25,27x/25,33x.
Balance = ping-pong 25,33x ↔ 24,90x.
Downside = break/close < 24,88x → 24,76x/24,70x.

Base probabilities from our model, then adjust ±5–10% per hour if DXY and VINMO are both rising (toward Downside) or both falling (toward Uptick).

Adjustment examples:

If DXY ↑ and VINMO ↑ into 10:00, nudge Downside +8%, take equally from Uptick/Balance.
If DXY ↓ and VINMO ↓ into 12:00, nudge Uptick +8% from Balance.

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

Yesterday’s note: NASDAQ-100 Futures (NQ) — Quantitative Outlook.

What worked: The “buy the pullback into 25,05x–25,12x if momentum confirms” framework remains valid; StochRSI divergence flagged the turn window correctly.
What didn’t: Entries taken before the 20-EMA reclaim carried lower expectancy; RSI < 50 kept follow-through muted.
Upgrades for this week:
1. Require 4h close > 20-EMA and RSI ≥ 50 before sizing trend trades.
2. Add the DXY/VINMO filter to throttle size.
3. Log hit-rates by regression-σ target (1.0, 1.5, 1.75) to tighten profit-taking.

Risk, Sizing, and Execution Rules

Stops: Intraday 0.45–0.60%; Swing 0.9–1.2%.
Scale: 50% at first target; trail under last 1h swing.
No-trade: If price chops between 20-EMA and 200-SMA with VINMO rising—use balance strategy only.
Do not fade a confirmed 4h close outside the channel ±1.5σ without VINMO confirmation.