NQ FUTURES: Trigger 25,689.00, Pivot 25,641.25, Guardrail 25,507.00 (11/12/2025)

A Memo From the Desk of a Hedge Fund Manager to his Team on the Trading Floor Outlining Todays Mechanical Trade Playbook

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

This Section of the Article is for Free Subscribers.

Executive summary

NASDAQ 8HR CHART with VWAPs anchored to Decade, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, and Session. I use ZLEMAs, VWMAs, SMA’s, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, AAVP’s anchored to the same time frame as the VWAPs. Woodies CCI, Money Flow Index, ATR, Chaikin Money Flow, Ultimate Oscillator and On Balance Volume.

Risk-on backdrop. Trade only at the listed triggers. Use NASDAQ-100 futures with ATR-based position sizing. Cross-asset filters remain supportive while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stays below 100.50 and volatility stays subdued on our in-house monitor. Mechanical plan favors long momentum through value-area high, tactical fades inside value, and short momentum only on a clean break of value-area low with money-flow confirmation from Chaikin Money Flow .

Desk note:

Use the triggers and (CMF)invalidations verbatim. Adjust directional bias intraday with DXY, our volatility monitor, 30-year T-Bond futures (ZB), and gold (XAU/GC).

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

We kept the playbook simple: strength only above the value-area high, weakness only below the value-area low, and range trades only inside value with tight risk. The improvement for today is tighter confirmation using CMF: treat readings between −0.05 and +0.05 as noise, and require ±0.10 or stronger for momentum entries. We also standardize stops and position size using Average True Range on the one-hour chart to keep dollar risk constant across setups.

Key levels

Nasdaq 90min chart with VWAP’s and AAVP’s anchored to a Decade, a year, a quarter, a month, a week and a session. I use ZLMEMAs. SMAs, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, Woodies CCI, Money Flow Index, ATR, Chaikin Money Flow, Ultimate Oscillator and On Balance Volume.

Reference framework: 15-minute Auto-Anchored Volume Profile (AAVP) and value areas.
Trigger (VAH): 25,689.00
Pivot (POC): 25,641.25
Guardrail (VAL): 25,507.00
Spot reference: ~25,706.75/25,706.00 (ask/bid)
Upside magnets: 25,788.13, 25,812.50, 25,880.00
Supports: 25,674–25,656, 25,641, 25,603.7, 25,507
Money-flow gate: CMF(20) ≈ +0.04; use ±0.05 as noise, ≥+0.10 confirm breakouts, ≤−0.10 confirm breakdowns.

Decision tree for NASDAQ Futures (Free)

If a fifteen-minute bar closes above 25,689 and a quick retest holds at or above 25,689, consider a long for continuation toward 25,788, then 25,812.50, then 25,880. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back below 25,641.

If price trades into 25,674–25,656 and momentum turns up, consider a bounce back toward 25,689–25,641, with a stretch objective at 25,788. Invalidate on a decisive break below 25,641.

If a fifteen-minute bar closes below 25,507, consider a short toward 25,474, then 25,462, then 25,343. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back above 25,641.

Decision tree for NASDAQ Futures (Paid)