NQ FUTURES: Trigger 25,519.00, Pivot 25,099.00, Guardrail 24,959.00 (11/07/2025)

A memo from the desk of a hedge fund manager to his team on the trading floor outlining todays Mechanical Playbook

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

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Executive Summary

NASDAQ 8hr Chart with AAVWAP’s, MTF RSI, MTF Stochastic RSI, MACD, ZLEMAs, VWMA, SMA, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, AAVP’s, Woodie’s CCI, Money Flow Index, and On-Balance Volume

Today’s operating map uses the auto-anchored volume profile on the fifteen-minute chart. The value-area high at approximately 25,510–25,519 is the practical trigger, the point of control at approximately 25,090–25,099 is the pivot, and the value-area low at approximately 24,950–24,959 is the guardrail. [Fact]

With the United States Dollar Index near 99.45 and below 100.50 while the volatility monitor sits around 20.6 and above 18, the cross-asset backdrop is mixed: the dollar is permissive for risk, but volatility argues for smaller size. Money-flow on the fifteen-minute chart is near negative 0.02, which is not a long confirmation. Trade mean reversion inside value by default and require confirmation to trade beyond value. [Fact+Theory]

A fifteen-minute close and quick retest that holds above the value-area high opens continuation toward 25,595, 25,695, then 25,840. A fifteen-minute close and acceptance below the value-area low favors continuation toward 24,875, 24,755, 24,600, then 24,548. [Theory]

Desk Note: use the triggers and invalidations verbatim, and adjust directional bias in real time with the DXY, VINMO, ZB-T-Bonds, and XAU.

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

We continue from NQ FUTURES: Trigger 25,565.00, Pivot 25,519.50, Guardrail 25,408.00 (11/05/2025), which framed a session playbook around value-area levels on the five-minute view. The improvement today is a cleaner anchoring on the fifteen-minute auto-anchored volume profile with updated bands: trigger approximately 25,510–25,519, pivot approximately 25,090–25,099, guardrail approximately 24,950–24,959. [Fact]

We also enforce a simple confirmation rule: trade breakouts or breakdowns only when the fast volume-weighted moving average leads its same-length simple moving average and the simple-moving-average cross confirms within three candles on the pane’s timeframe. Money-flow must also leave the ±0.05 noise band in the direction of the trade. [Fact: rule clarification]

Key Levels / Takeaways

Value-Area High (VAH): approximately 25,510–25,519 → Session trigger. [Fact]

Point of Control (POC): approximately 25,090–25,099 → Session pivot. [Fact]

Value-Area Low (VAL): approximately 24,950–24,959 → Session guardrail. [Fact]

Takeaways

Mapping VAH, POC, and VAL to trigger, pivot, and guardrail turns the profile into a mechanical roadmap for the session. [Theory]

Money-flow is muted on the fifteen-minute chart near negative 0.02 while higher-timeframe momentum remains below zero. Fade edges by default until price accepts beyond value with confirmation. [Fact+Theory]

Confirm breakouts only when the fast volume-weighted moving average is above its same-length simple moving average and the same-length simple-moving-average cross follows within three candles; confirm breakdowns with the opposite alignment. Require Chaikin Money Flow to clear ±0.05. [Fact: rule]

Decision Tree ( Free )

If a fifteen-minute bar closes above approximately 25,510–25,519 and a quick retest holds at or above that band, consider a long for continuation. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back at or below approximately 25,090–25,099. [Theory]

If price trades down to approximately 25,090–25,099 and turns up on the retest, consider a bounce back toward approximately 25,510–25,519. Invalidate on decisive loss of approximately 25,090–25,099 that accepts into the lower half of value. [Theory]

If a fifteen-minute bar closes below approximately 24,950–24,959 and holds on retest, consider a short for continuation. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back above approximately 25,090–25,099. [Theory]

If price probes approximately 24,950–24,959 and stalls, consider a tactical bounce toward approximately 25,090–25,099. Invalidate on a decisive break below approximately 24,950–24,959. [Theory]

Decision Tree ( Paid )