NQ Futures Playbook: Trigger 26,018.75, Pivot 25,955, Guardrail 25,767.5 (10/29/2025)

A hedge fund desk brief to the inner circle with predictions for Daily Pivot Times

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by

Andrew Jodice

of

Markets, Liberty, & Discipline

. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

This section is for free subscribers

Executive Summary

NASDAQ Daily Chart with AAVWAP’s, MTF RSI, MTF Stochastic RSI, MACD, ZLEMAs, CVD, cRSI, RSI ZLMA, AAVP’s, Woodie’s CCI, Money Flow Index, and On-Balance Volume

Bias: mildly positive while the U.S. Dollar Index is not advancing and while equity volatility is subdued. [Theory]

The day’s behavior is governed by a simple map: momentum activates above 26,018.75, balance holds between 26,018.75 and 25,955, and control shifts to sellers below 25,955, with the four-hour trend line of defense near 25,767.5. [Fact]

A rising long-bond and a soft gold tape tilt risk toward higher equity prices if dollar strength remains contained. [Theory]

Desk Note: use the triggers and invalidations verbatim, and adjust directional bias in real time with the DXY, VINMO, ZB-TBonds, and XAUU.

Review of Yesterday’s Call & Improvements

We are building directly on NQ Playbook — 26,018.75 trigger, 25,955 pivot, 25,767 guardrail (10/28/25). Yesterday’s structure and trigger levels remain valid today; we tighten execution by requiring a fifteen-minute close and retest confirmation for breakouts and by enforcing volatility gates around VINMO 18.

Key Levels / Takeaways

• One-day swing trigger: 26,018.75. [Fact]

• Four-hour VWAP: 25,992.92. [Fact]

• Fifteen-minute anchored volume profile developing point of control: 25,954.70. [Fact]

• Micro prints: 25,967 and 25,962.75. [Fact]

• Four-hour trend guardrail (exponential moving average / zero-lag reference): ≈25,767.5. [Fact]

• Downside shelves: 25,592 / 25,341 / 25,323 / 25,062. [Fact]
  Plain-English: the market tends to accelerate when it gets above the trigger, chop between trigger and pivot, and lose momentum under the pivot with the guardrail acting as the last line before a larger down leg. [Theory]

Decision Tree ( Free )

• If a fifteen-minute bar closes above 26,018.75 and a quick retest holds at or above 26,005, favor buying the retest for continuation toward 26,065, then 26,105, then 26,205. Invalidate if a fifteen-minute bar closes below 25,955. [Theory]

• If price trades 25,967–25,955 and momentum turns up on your oscillators, favor a bounce back toward 25,995–26,019; stretch 26,065. Invalidate on a decisive break below 25,940. [Theory]

• If a fifteen-minute bar closes below 25,955 while the dollar index is rising or VINMO is above 18, favor shorts toward 25,905 → 25,820 → 25,767. Invalidate on a fifteen-minute close back above 25,995. [Theory]

Decision Tree ( Paid )