CIO Briefing: BTCUSD Playbook with VINMO Gate (NY Session) (10/27/2025)
Today’s BTC playbook in one picture: precise gates from DXY & VINMO, and the risk controls we’re actually using on the desk.
Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by of Markets Liberty & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks” strategy to execute trades.
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Confidential — Inner Circle Memo
Volatility’s Silence Is Our Signal
The Cboe Near-Term Volatility complex (VINMO proxy) sits in a low regime. When volatility compresses, range breaks travel farther—provided the macro gate (VINMO) stays subdued.
TL;DR Decision Tree (Desk-Ready)
If 1h/4h close > 115.9–116.1k → trend-follow long to 117.5–118.2k, then 119.8–120.6k.
If rejection inside 115.6–116.6k + 1h StochRSI rolls → fade to 114.4–114.8k.
If 1h close < 114.4k or VINMO > 18.5 → tactical short to 112.0–112.4k (then 111.0–111.3k).
VINMO < 15 = tailwind; > 18.5 = headwind regardless of pattern.
Market Regime: BTCUSD Structure & Levels
Bias: Macro uptrend intact; re-accumulation on 4h resolving up.
Location: Price is pressing a dense supply shelf 115.5–116.6k (top of ~1.75σ regression channel + Monthly VAH cluster).
Supports: 114.1–114.6k (SMA/VA bands) → 112.0–112.4k (4h EMA20 / weekly value) → 111.0–111.3k.
Magnets/Resistance: 116.6–118.2k → 119.8–120.6k → 123–124k.
Momentum (facts from the charts):
MACD rising on 1h/4h (bullish momentum).
Stochastic RSI pinned high during breakout (trending behavior can “stay overbought”).
Daily RSI > 50 (trend-supportive).
Cross-Market Gate: VINMO (Near-Term VIX)
VINMO ~16.3 and below short moving averages (~17–18) → risk-supportive.
Reflex spike > 18.5 typically caps upside and tilts to mean reversion in BTC.
Gate matrix
VINMO Read Stance < 15 Tailwind Press trend longs 15–18.5 Neutral Trade levels; moderate size > 18.5 Headwind Reduce risk; fade strength or hedge
Scenarios & Probabilities (next 24–48h)
Scenario Trigger Path Prob. Continuation 1h/4h close > 115.9–116.1k with momentum 117.5–118.2k, stretch 119.8–120.6k 45% Range Fade Rejection at 115.6–116.6k + 1h StochRSI roll Back to 114.4–114.8k, reload 35% Deeper Pullback 1h close < 114.4k or VINMO > 18.5 112.0–112.4k, then 111.0–111.3k 18% Squeeze Up Swift acceptance > 118.2k on rising vol Sprint 120–121k 2%
Mechanical Trade Plan (Entries, Targets, Stops)
Trend-Follow Long
Entry: 1h/4h close > 115.9–116.1k
Targets: 117.5 → 118.2 → 119.8–120.6k
Invalidation: 1h close < 114.8k
Mean-Revert Short
Entry: Rejection wick inside 115.6–116.6k + 1h StochRSI cross-down
Targets: 114.8 → 114.1 → 112.4k
Invalidation: 1h close > 116.6k
Add: If VINMO > 18.5 and rising
Risk Architecture & Sizing (ATR-based)
Use ATR for stop distance:
1h ATR ≈ 610 → scalp stop ≈ 0.8×ATR ≈ 490 pts
4h ATR ≈ 900 → swing stop ≈ 1.2×ATR ≈ 1,080 pts
Position size = (Equity × Risk %) ÷ Stop distance
Only scale size when VINMO < 18 and not trending up.
Risk management overrides conviction.
What the Thesis Gets Right & Watch-Outs
True in fact
4h/1h MACD positive; daily RSI > 50.
Supply 115.5–116.6k and demand 114.1–114.6k are confirmed by VWAP/POC clustering.
True in theory (consistent with history)
Wyckoff re-accumulation framing (JAC → SOS/BU/EF → Phase E).
“Overbought ≠ sell” in strong trend regimes (StochRSI can remain pinned).
Watch-outs
VINMO shock > 18.5–20 stalls upside; favor Range Fade/Pullback branches.
Momentum failure tell: 1h MACD turns negative while price is < 116k.
One-liner for the desk:
Above 116k: buy dips to 117.5–118.2k (stretch 120k). Below 114.4k: respect downside to 112s. VINMO < 15 tailwind; > 18.5 headwind.
Glossary — Clickable Definitions
Volatility / VIX (VINMO proxy)
MACD / RSI / Stochastic RSI
Educational disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading involves substantial risk. Most day traders lose money. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
