BTC Weekly Playbook (2025-11-09): AAVP/VWAP Map, If→Then Decision Tree, 6hr & 24hr Trade Probabilities
Bitcoin technical analysis • BTCUSD levels • VWAP & Volume Profile • VWMA/SMA confirmation • ATR risk
Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.
TL;DR: Bias is modestly long while price holds above POC 104,867. Only chase momentum on a clean break-and-retest above VAH 105,225 with VWMA/SMA confirmation. Acceptance below VAL 104,538 opens rotation to 104.35 → 103.59 → 103.18 before reassessing. [Fact/Theory]
Review of Last Week: What Worked, What We’re Improving
In How to Trade Bitcoin Without Losing Your Mind: A Rational Roadmap for Volatile Markets we framed 103,000–105,000 as the key resistance band and outlined conditional paths: reclaim and hold above 103k for momentum higher, or rejection there for a fade back toward 100k. That resistance mapping proved useful as price churned around the 103–105k corridor, validating the “confirmation first” stance before chasing. Improvement for this week: tighten confirmation with a VWMA/SMA double-confirm and CMF(20, 90m) gating, plus a narrower invalidation back through POC 104,867 when breakout attempts fail.
Operating Map (90-min AAVP) — Current State
Value, VWAPs, Trend Pack, Oscillators
AAVP (90m): VAH 105,225, POC 104,867, VAL 104,538. [Fact]
VRVP overhead: POC 108,091, VAH 110,786, VAL 103,248. [Fact]
VWAP stack (90m): Session VWAP ≈ 104,555; UB1 106,477; LB1 104,350; weekly/monthly VWAPs ~103,59x / 103,181; ZLMA ~102,997. [Fact]
Trend pack (90m): Fast VWMA 103,636 > SMA 103,355 and Slow VWMA 102,920 > SMA 102,650 → bullish state satisfied. RSI-ZLMA 75.6, CRSI 82, CVD +34, CMF ≈ +0.10. [Fact]
Higher-TF context: 2-day shows RSI/EFI/CVD bullish divergences from early-Nov lows; 8-hour sits near 20-EMA with prior “H2 short @ 20-EMA” risk callout. [Fact]
MA table (spot): SMA200 ~104,409, EMA200 ~104,345, VWMA20 ~103,661, HMA9 ~105,038. [Fact]
Interpretation: Inside-value chop persists. Bullish trend state on 90m, but overhead VRVP POC 108,091 is a magnet only after clean acceptance above 105,225. [Theory]
Triggers, Invalidations, Targets
Long Breakout
Trigger: 15–90 min close > 105,225 (VAH) and retest holds ≥ 105,180, with VWMA(13)>SMA(13) and VWMA(26)>SMA(26), plus SMA cross ≤3 bars after VWMA cross. [Theory]
Invalidation: Acceptance back < 104,867 (POC). [Theory]
TP ladder: 105,476 → 106,477 (VWAP-UB1) → 107,389/108,091 (VRVP POC) → stretch 111,575–111,919 (VWAP/UB2). [Theory]
Short Breakdown
Trigger: Close < 104,538 (VAL) and retest fails ≤ 104,560, with bear-state VWMA/SMA confirm ≤3 bars. [Theory]
Invalidation: Acceptance > 104,867 (POC); structural > 105,225. [Theory]
TP ladder: 104,350 (VWAP-LB1) → 103,593 / 103,181 (weekly/monthly VWAPs) → 102,997–102,711 (ZLMA/EMA) → 101,901 → 100,709 → 98,898. [Theory]
Inside-Value Plays
Fade 105,180–105,225 → POC 104,867 only if SMA confirm is missing or CMF(20,90m) ≤ −0.10. [Theory]
Buy 104,560–104,540 → POC only if bear SMA confirm is missing and CMF ≥ +0.10. [Theory]
If → Then Decision Tree (Execution Logic)
Regime Select
If price ≥ POC 104,867 then bias long-tilted; prepare Long Breakout path. [Theory]
If price < VAL 104,538 then bias short-tilted; prepare Short Breakdown path. [Theory]
If price between VAL and VAH then treat as inside-value; run fade setups only with CMF/SMA gating. [Theory]
Breakout Path
If 15–90m closes > 105,225 and retest holds ≥ 105,180 and VWMA/SMA double-confirm fires then long to 105,476 → 106,477 → 107,389/108,091, trail by VWAP bands. [Theory]
If breakout fails back through 104,867 then exit remainder and stand down to inside-value playbook. [Theory]
Breakdown Path
If 15–90m closes < 104,538 and retest fails ≤ 104,560 with bear VWMA/SMA confirm then short to 104,350 → 103,593 → 103,181 → 102,997, manage risk by ATR stop. [Theory]
If price re-accepts > 104,867 then cover and revert to neutral/inside-value. [Theory]
Inside-Value Fades
If price tags 105,180–105,225 but SMA confirm is absent or CMF ≤ −0.10 then fade back to POC 104,867, scale at 0.5×ATR, stop above 105,260. [Theory]
If price tags 104,560–104,540 and bear confirm is absent and CMF ≥ +0.10 then buy back to POC, scale at 0.5×ATR, stop below 104,480. [Theory]
Probabilities (Conditional, Barrier-Hit Model)
6-hour: If ≥ POC 104,867, ~58% up / 42% down. If < VAL 104,538, ~40% up / 60% down toward 104.35 → 10 hi3.59. [Theory]
24-hour: Base ~56% up / 44% down while ≥ 104,538. Lose the 102.9–103.2 cluster and odds skew to downside. [Theory]
These are model odds from first-passage approximations using recent range-derived σ. They are not forecasts. [Theory]
Risk & Sizing (ATR-Driven)
ATR proxy: 90-min ATR-60 ≈ $690; use ATR(1h) ≈ $700 as an operational estimate. [Fact→Spec]
Stop template: 0.60 × ATR ≈ $420–$440 per BTC. [Theory]
Position size:
size_btc = risk_$ / stop_$. Example: $880 risk → ~2.0 BTC with $440 stop. Scale to perps/micros as needed. [Fact]
Execution Checklist
Before Entry
Confirm regime: above POC, inside value, or below VAL. [Theory]
Require VWMA/SMA state alignment on both 13 and 26 lengths; look for SMA cross ≤3 bars after VWMA cross for a true breakout/breakdown. [Fact]
After Entry
Scale 50% at first TP (~0.5×ATR). [Theory]
Move stop to −0.3×ATR; trail remainder by VWAP bands or last swing. [Theory]
Stand down after a failed breakout back through POC. [Theory]
Fact / Theory / Speculation Audit
Fact: AAVP/VRVP/VWAP levels (VAH 105,225 / POC 104,867 / VAL 104,538), VWAP bands, oscillator prints, CMF ≈ +0.10, MA table, ATR-60 ≈ $690 — all from the provided charts.
Theory: Breakout/breakdown rules requiring VWMA/SMA double-confirm, CMF gating, target ladders, risk model multiples, barrier-hit probability framing.
Speculation: Using ATR(1h) ≈ $700 as a convenience proxy from the 90-min read; replace with platform ATR(14,1h) for precision.
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Sources
Prior weekly review anchor: “How to Trade Bitcoin Without Losing Your Mind: A Rational Roadmap for Volatile Markets.” (intellectualdissatisfaction.com)
Legal Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Most day traders lose money. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
