Bitcoin Weekly Trade Setup: VWAP Resets, Spike-Then-Channel, and This Week’s Mechanical Trading Plan
Bitcoin price analysis, BTC forecast, crypto technical analysis, VWAP, Bollinger Bands, 50 EMA, StochRSI, ATR position sizing, support and resistance, risk management
Executive Summary
Regime: New month and quarter VWAP resets produced a spike-then-channel context trade. Expect two-sided trading around the weekly value area until there is new acceptance of that value area outside the already established VAH/VAL for that timeframe.
Engine: 4h 50-EMA trend filter, 1.8σ Bollinger rails on the 50-EMA, weekly value (VAH/POC/VAL), monthly/quarterly VWAP confluence, 1h StochRSI + RSI + CCI gates, and ATR(14) sizing.
Bias this week (model weights): Long 58%, Neutral 36%, Short 6%. Rationale below.
Review of Last Week’s Call
Context: Pivot $111K–$112K. Above $112K–$113K projected $117K–$120K; failure risked $107K–$110K. We traded the same ruleset.
What went right
Trend alignment with the 4h 50-EMA avoided counter-trend chops.
Weekly POC acted as a magnet; trims near VAH captured mean-reversion legs.
ATR stops and 1.8σ rails limited drawdown; +1R to breakeven worked.
What needs work
Acceptance discipline: intraday pokes over $112K–$113K were not accepted. Require 4h close + volume above POC/VWAP.
Scaling: larger first trim at VAH/upper rail when momentum stalls.
Trigger timing under high ATR: entries on bar close, not intrabar.
POC flips: automatic half-size and stop-to-breakeven when the weekly POC flips against the position.
Procedural updates
Acceptance rule = 4h close above weekly POC and above 50-EMA with volume > 20-bar moving average.
Profit ladder = 40% at VAH/upper rail, 30% at prior swing, 30% runner; mirror for shorts at VAL/lower rail.
Trigger = 1h StochRSI cross on close with RSI > 50 for longs, < 50 for shorts; CCI must exit the overbought/oversold zones of ±100.
Volatility throttle = Size = Risk$ / (k·ATR), k=1.5 when the ATR is in the top-quartile, otherwise use a multiple of 1.2.
POC flip rule = I immediate trim to half the size of my position and move the stop loss up to breakeven.
Updated Market Context: VWAP's Reset → Price Spikes-Then a Channel forms.
New month and quarter reset all VWAP anchors on the stack. The First impulse away from the fresh anchors printed a spike. Which is a typical swt up for a channel that mean-reverts toward the regression trend or the VWAP anchored at the spike, unless the market accepts the new value area above the weekly VAH.
Responsive trading inside the weekly value area until a clean acceptance break.
Seasonality Context
We add seasonality as a secondary, non-overriding input to weigh directional bias.
October has shown a positive historical mean with more up months than down in the dataset window.
This supports a small positive tilt for continuation if the system confirms acceptance above POC/50-EMA.
Seasonality — yearly traces vs average line
Seasonality is contextual, not a signal. The mechanical system still governs all entries and exits.
The Mechanical System
Trend filter: Use the 4h close in relation to the 50-EMA. If the close is in the same direction as the EMA, trend filter passed.
Risk rails: Bollinger Bands on the 50-EMA at 1.8σ.
Auction map: Weekly value Area (VAH/POC/VAL).
Fair-value anchors: Monthly and quarterly VWAP cluster tell you if the stock is overbought or oversold.
Momentum gates: 1h StochRSI cross + RSI 50 test + CCI exit from the oversold/overbought ±100.
Sizing: ATR(14) on the 4h.
VWAP ribbons and 50-EMA rails (4h)
Pure VWAP/value bands (4h)
Setups
Mean-Reversion Long at Lower Rail of Bollinger band.
Preconditions: Trend up or neutral. Pricr needs to Tag the lower 1.8σ or VAL.
Trigger: 1h StochRSI up-cross, RSI > 50, CCI rises through −100.
Entry: Next 1h close while still at rail/value.
Stop: Below swing low or 1.0·ATR.
Targets: POC → VAH → upper rail.
Manage: +1Risk to breakeven. Trail 1.0–1.25·ATR once price moves beyond your forst targets. Be flexible with your targets. If you come up to your target fast and hold under it you will move over it.Trend-Pullback Long at Mid-Band
Preconditions: 4h > 50-EMA. Pullback to mid-band or VWAP cluster without a 4h close below the 50-EMA.
Trigger: 1h StochRSI up-cross with RSI ≥ 50.
Stop: 1.0–1.25·ATR or below lower rail.
Targets: VAH → upper rail. Scale 40/30/30.Rejection Short at VWAP Cluster / Upper Rail
Preconditions: Test of monthly/quarterly VWAP or upper Bollinger band rail.
Trigger: 1h StochRSI down-cross, RSI < 50, CCI rolls under +100.
Entry: 1h close back under mid-band or weekly POC.
Stop: Above rejection or 1.0–1.25·ATR.
Targets: POC → VAL → lower rail.
Manage: +1R to breakeven. Trail 1.0·ATR.Breakout-Acceptance Continuation
Preconditions: 4h close outside value area with volume > 20-bar moving average of volume.
Long: Close above VAH and above 50-EMA, pullback holds VAH from above.
Short: Close below VAL and below 50-EMA, pullback holds VAL from below.
Stop: Inside prior value by 1.0·ATR.
Targets: Opposite rail, then measured move equal to prior value width1h StochRSI, RSI, CCI, ATR
Oscillators on the 1h StochRSI, RSI, CCI, ATR
Intraday structure — 1h price vs session VWAP/value
This Week’s Levels and Triggers
Bullish path
Requirement: 4h close > weekly POC and > 50-EMA with volume > 20-bar average.
Action: Buy pullbacks to POC / mid-band / VWAP cluster with 1h up-cross confirmation.
Targets: VAH → upper rail.
Invalidation: 4h close back under POC + 50-EMA.Bearish path
Requirement: Rejection at VWAP cluster / upper rail and 4h loss of 50-EMA.
Action: Sell bounces to mid-band/POC from below on 1h down-cross.
Targets: VAL → lower rail.
Invalidation: 4h close back above POC + 50-EMA.Neutral path
Inside weekly value. Trade VAL ↔ POC ↔ VAH rotations with reduced size and faster trims.
Model Weights for the Week
Long setups: 58%
Inputs: Positive October seasonality tilt, price oscillating near value with potential acceptance above POC/50-EMA, prior spike easing into channel where pullback longs have higher expectancy.Neutral rotations: 36%
Inputs: Weekly value active, overlapping profiles, VWAP cluster gravity. Expect a two-sided trade.Short setups: 6%
Inputs: Require clean rejection at upper rail/VWAP plus 4h loss of 50-EMA. Lower probability unless acceptance flips.
Heuristic blend of structural state (value vs acceptance), momentum gates, and seasonality context. Not a prediction. The rules determine trades.
Position Sizing and Risk
Size = Risk$ / (k·ATR) using 4h ATR(14).
k=1.5 in top-quartile ATR, else 1.2.
+1R to breakeven.
Loss cap = 2R per day.
No averaging down. Max two concurrent positions. Hard stops on exchange.
Background reading:
Bottom Line
This is a mechanical bitcoin trading strategy that converts BTC support and resistance and VWAP/value into a repeatable plan. Trade location first. Confirm with momentum. Size with ATR. Let the ladder harvest rotations and trends. Do not forecast. Execute rules. Protect capital.
Disclaimers:
This is not financial advice. Always speak to a certified money manager before making any financial decisions. This analysis represents the daily musings of an intraday trader.
(Fail-Safe Rule)
This analysis verifies that the provided text uses legitimate financial concepts, terminology, and theories correctly within the framework of technical analysis. However, the accuracy of the market predictions themselves cannot be established. All financial forecasting is inherently speculative and subject to significant uncertainty. The outcome of the described scenarios is not knowable in advance!!!
Support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber!!
Intellectual Dissatisfaction is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.