Bitcoin Weekly Outlook — September 8, 2025
Critical Pivot at $111K: Compression Before Expansion
^custom song for this article… Enjoy
Bitcoin is compressing around the $111K pivot zone, testing both intraday traders’ patience and swing traders’ conviction. $112,028 is the near-term pivot point that will decide whether BTC rallies toward $118K–$120K or falls back toward $104K–$107K.
Bias: Range Trading with a Possible Bull Channel
Best Case: Spike to $112K and rally in a channel to $118K–$120K
Base Case: Range trade $110.4K–$112.8K
Worst Case: Lose $110K → flush to $107K, possibly $104K
Expected Value (EV, 1-week horizon): +1.95% (swing), +0.70% (intraday)
Chart 1 (Wave & Channel View)
BTC was rejected off the top of its regression channel.
The quarterly VAL (~$118K) acted as resistance three times.
Double-bottom “failed breakout pullbacks” around $110K continue to be tested.
Next decisive move depends on reclaiming 112,028 or losing 110,419 / 109,195.
Chart 2 (Volume Profile)
Point of Control (POC): $111K — heavy volume acceptance zone.
Below this, liquidity thins quickly until 107–104K.
Above, high-volume shelves open clean air toward 118–120K.
Chart 3 (Momentum & Order Flow)
Momentum oscillators are mid-range, leaving room in either direction.
Short-term sentiment swings have created fertile ground for false breakouts and traps.
Volume clusters confirm $110–111K as the battlefield.
Decision Tree
Price near 111K
├─ Reclaim & hold ≥112,028 (4h close)
│ → Long bias → Targets 118K–120K
└─ Fail at 112K or lose 110.4K
├─ Range trade 110.4K–112.8K
└─ Lose 109.2K → Flush toward 107K–104K
Risk/Reward Matrix
Trading Plan (1-week horizon)
Intraday: Buy dips 110.7–111K, reduce into 112–112.8K; stop <110.4K.
Swing: Starter long if daily close ≥111K; add only after 4h close ≥112,028; stop on daily close <109.2K.
Contingency: If 107.3K fails, go flat and wait for support at 103.9–102.6K.
Bottom Line
BTC is coiling at $111K with a clear line in the sand:
Above 112K = breakout path toward $118K–$120K
Below 110K = retrace risk toward $107K–$104K
The range is tight, the stakes are high, and over the next 2–5 sessions, Bitcoin should resolve the compression going back to the last week of august.
This analysis blends technical structure with institutional-grade risk planning, which is ideal for both short-term traders and mid-term investors.
Disclaimers:
This is not financial advice. Always speak to a certified money manager before making any financial decisions. This analysis represents the daily musings of an intraday trader.
Statement of Uncertainty:
(Fail-Safe Rule)
This analysis verifies that the provided text uses legitimate financial concepts, terminology, and theories correctly within the framework of technical analysis. However, the accuracy of the market predictions themselves cannot be established. All financial forecasting is inherently speculative and subject to significant uncertainty. The outcome of the described scenarios is not knowable in advance!!!
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