Bitcoin Daily Playbook Using VWAP Bands, EMA's, Keltner Bands and Wyckoff Theory
Date: October 10, 2025
Table of contents: TL;DR • 30-second read • 90-second brief • 3-minute full view • Trade triggers • Risk, sizing, and invalidation • Levels appendix • Glossary / how-to links • SEO key phrases
TL;DR
Bias slightly bullish while 121,58–121,79k holds. Reclaim 30m/4h VWAP at 122,98–123,01k to unlock 124,15–126,22k. Lose 121,58k and expect 120,74k before any new attempt up.
Spot: 121,56–121,61k.
Control zone: 121,580–121,805 around daily POC 121,789.
Gate: 122,981–123,013 (4h/30m VWAP cluster).
Upside ladder: 124.15–124.56k → 125,525 → 126,219 → 129.7–131.1k.
Downside ladder: 121,58 → 121,12–121,35 → 120,743 → 119,70 → 118,36k.
90-second brief
Market structure: Re-accumulation with Three Drives inside the larger envelope. The path to 130–131k opens only after acceptance above 125,5–126,2k.
Where price sits vs. my levels.
Daily AAVP: VAH 124,178.35 / POC 121,789.35 / VAL 120,743.43 (Volume Profile).
8h: EMA(9) ≈ 122,028 (earlier 122,948), ZLMA(20,2) ≈ 125,307, cRSI 53.9 (49.5–56.5 band), RSI-ZLMA 52.0.
4h: VWAP 122,981.26 with bands 121,510–124,156; RSI ≈ 47; Stoch K/D 37/30.
30m: Session VWAP 123,013.43; lower bands 121,479/121,348; RSI ≈ 51; Stoch 46/47; MACD –12.8, Hist –36.
5m: VWAP 121,490–123,001 (two snapshots); Stoch K/D cooled from ~95/94 to 62/58.
Flow: Higher-TF CVD positive on 8h and 4h → dips absorbed.
Momentum: 8h RSI-ZLMA cooled from 80s to ~52 → room both ways.
Envelope: Daily ZLMA Keltner mid ~122.94k, upper 127.50k, lower 118.36k.
Probability Report(24–72h, rule based)
Bullish continuation 54%: Reclaim VWAP gate → 124.15–124.56k, then 125,525 → 126,219, stretch 129.7–131.1k.
Range/chop 26%: Failures at 122.98–123.01k keep 121.1–123.5k.
Bearish backfill 20%: M30 close < 121,580 → 121.12–121.35k, tag 120,743; lose 120,743 → 119.70 → 118.36k.
Quantitative analysis
Context and structure
Price sits under intraday VWAP but on top of the daily POC 121,789, inside a re-accumulation sequence (BU/EC → JAC). The control zone 121,580–121,805 aligns the breakaway-gap support with the most-traded price. Acceptance above the 4h/30m VWAP cluster 122,981–123,013 is the practical gate for momentum.
Momentum state
8h: EMA(9) reclaim is the first step; RSI-ZLMA near 52 implies reset without damage.
4h: RSI ~47 leaves room to pivot higher if VWAP is reclaimed.
30m/5m: Oscillators mid-range after cooling from overbought. Watch MACD histogram flip ≥0 at the gate.
Bands and channels
Daily ZLMA Keltner mid near 122.94k is the immediate bias line. Upper band 127.50k caps the first thrust. Lower 118.36k is risk if VAL fails. The measured-move boxes 130,106–131,122 remain valid only after reclaim and hold above 125,5–126,2k and a clean tag of 126,219.
Flow and tape
Higher-TF CVD remains positive, consistent with dip absorption. If price accepts above VWAP while CVD stays bid, overhead pockets into 124.15–124.56k can fill quickly.
Trade triggers
Deterministic, rules-based. Use your exact on-screen values.
Long momentum trigger
Condition: M15–M30 close above 122,981–123,013 with M30 RSI > 55 and MACD histogram ≥ 0.
Entry: 123.05–123.20k on the retest/hold of reclaimed VWAP.
Invalidation: 121,690.
Targets: 124.15–124.56k → 125,525 → 126,219. Stretch: 129.7–131.1k.
R:R guides: To 125,525 ≈ 1:2.6–1:3.0; to 126,219 ≈ 1:3.7–1:4.1.
Fade / reversion trigger (only if VWAP cluster rejects)
Condition: Two M15 rejections at 122,98–123,01k with lower highs, 5–15m Stoch cross down from >80, MACD hist < 0.
Entry: 122,85–122,95k.
Invalidation: 123,36k.
Targets: 121,789 → 121,58 → 121,12–121,35k.
Scenario map
Path A (54%): Acceptance above gate → 124.15–124.56k, hold > VWAP, advance to 125,525 → 126,219, then risk 129.7–131.1k.
Path B (26%): VWAP pin keeps 121.1–123.5k rotations.
Path C (20%): M30 < 121,580 → 121.12–121.35k, tag 120,743; lose VAL and sellers press 119.70 → 118.36k.
Risk, sizing, and invalidation
Position size:
qty = risk / (1.2 × ATR_1h)using ATR.Trail: 1.0–1.2 × ATR_1h after first scale.
Scale-outs: Longs scale at 124.15–124.56k; fades scale at 121,58k.
Stand-down zone: If price chops 122.9–123.3k without a closing signal.
Invalidate bullish path: Daily close < 120,743 (VAL) or 8h close < 119,85–119,70k. That downgrades the 129–131k window and shifts risk to 118.36k → 117.02k.
Levels appendix
Immediate resistance:
121,789 • 122,981 (4h VWAP) • 123,013 (30m VWAP) • 123,348 (1h VWAP prior set) • 124,150–124,560 (VWAP upper #1 cluster) • 125,525 (Monthly VAH) • 126,219 swing high → gateway to 129,7–131,1k.
Immediate support:
121,580.42 (daily POC) • 121,510–121,512 (4h VWAP bands) • 121,348/121,479 (30m bands) • 121,110–121,122 (Range-Filter low) • 120,743 (daily VAL) • 119,700 local low • 118,363 (ZLMA channel lower).
Envelope: Daily ZLMA Keltner mid ~122.94k, upper 127.50k, lower 118.36k.
Glossary / how-to links
VWAP: Session-weighted mean price; reclaim often signals control by buyers.
EMA: Trend filter; fast reclaims precede thrusts.
RSI: Momentum confirmation; prefer >55 at the gate.
Connors RSI: Short-term composite momentum for overbought/oversold context.
RSI-ZLMA (Valueray): RSI applied to Zero-Lag MA for reduced delay.
Stochastic Oscillator: Rotation timing; crosses down from >80 aid fades.
MACD: Momentum and trend; histogram ≥0 supports continuation.
Keltner Channels: Volatility envelope to frame moves.
ZLEMA / ZLMA: Zero-Lag MA to reduce smoothing delay.
Volume Profile (POC/VAL/VAH): Acceptance vs rejection map.
Anchored VWAP: Event-anchored control.
measured move: Targeting method using impulse symmetry.
Wyckoff re-accumulation overview: Phase structure reference.
Cumulative Delta basics: Order-flow primer.
ATR: Volatility-based sizing and trailing.
How to trade using a measured move.
Appendix to the Glossary
Bitcoin price analysis • VWAP strategy • EMA trend filter • RSI confirmation • Stochastic overbought/oversold • MACD momentum • Keltner channel breakout • Volume Profile POC/VAL/VAH • Anchored VWAP reclaim • ATR risk management • Wyckoff re-accumulation • measured move • Cumulative Delta.
