Bitcoin (BTC) Long Strategy using LEAPS & Delta Neutral Collars
By Andrew Jodice
A look back at the prediction from 08/16/25 reveals that the Bearish scenario I predicted, played out exactly how I thought, except for one detail. The Selling pressure became quite heavy once BTC hit the bottom side of the regression trend channel, pushing it below the channel.
It is very common for price to start an accumulation cycle once it drops below a regression trend channel, as price prepares to breakout and test the $110k resistance zone, and then the %112k resistance zone and so on.
The charts for today’s post have pink circles with pink callouts where I predicted price would bounce and then reject off of the red dashed Point of Control. This sent BTC below the blue solid regression trendline that is 2 standard deviations below the yellow regression trend line. This sets up a nice regression to the mean type Swing Trade.
Market Context, Intra-Day Trade & Swing Trade.
Bitcoin (BTC) is accumulating around $107K after a sharp pullback from its recent highs near $124K. The chart highlights critical support and resistance levels shaping BTC’s near-term trajectory.
Key Resistance Zones: $112.8K, $117.9K, $120.1K.
Major Supports: $107K (2-year VAH), $106.8K (quarterly VAL), $103.6K (2-year volume profile VAHlevel).
Volume Analysis: Significant volume accumulation between $106K-$108K, is currently acting as a potential spring in a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern for future moves.
Technical Breakdown
Trend Overview: Bitcoin remains in a corrective channel, with resistance at prior quarterly value area lows.
Volume Profile Insights: The $112.8K zone previously acted as support but has flipped into resistance.
Critical Support: If BTC loses $106.8K, a test of $103.6K is likely; failure at $103.6K means sub $100k numbers.
Pattern Analysis: BTC has completed the three impulses down, with two corrections, completing the Elliot Impulse Wave(12345). BTC is currently in an Elliot Correction Wave(ABC), suggesting that BTC is near an inflection point. The development of the 3 White Soldiers pattern, which is 3 bull trend candles in a Row, each with increasing volume is indicative of institutional Activity.
Intraday + Swing Trading Decision Tree
09/01/2025
├─ Intraday Dip to ~$107K → Intraday long using delta-neutral collar → Target +10% / Protect(Stop-loss) –5%
└─ Swing Pullback to $105K–$110K → Build partial LEAPS accumulation → Target +20% / Tolerance –10%
Risk/Reward Matrix for Intraday trades and Swing trades
Horizon = Intra-Day
Best Case: +10% (40% Chance)
Base Case: +3% (50% Chance)
Worst Case: –5% (10% chance)
Expected Value: +3.9% Gain
Horizon = Swing Trade
Best Case: +20% (30% Chance)
Base Case: +10% (50% Chance)
Worst Case: –10% (20% chance)
Expected Value: +7% Gain
Key Takeaways
Institutional ETF flows are supporting BTC at current levels.
Supply dynamics suggest tightening availability.
Sentiment remains high; corrections are being bought, as shown by the 30min charts Accumulation structure.
Due to an elevated Volatility risk, hedging using deltra-neutral collar for Intra-Day and LEAPS recommended.
Trading Strategies
1. Intraday Dip to ~$107K → Intraday Long Using Delta-Neutral Collar
Concept:
A delta-neutral collar is an options strategy that allows traders to profit from a price move (up or down) while protecting against sharp losses.
How It Works:
Buy BTC (or a long futures/spot position) near a strong support level (~$107K).
Buy a put option (insurance) slightly below the entry price.
Sell a call option above the entry price to offset the cost of the put.
The combined position creates a “collar” around your trade:
Upside is capped at the strike of the sold call.
Downside is limited by the put.
“Delta-neutral” means the net position is hedged to be less sensitive to immediate price swings—helpful for intraday volatility.
Why Hedge Funds Use It:
Protects capital in fast-moving markets.
Allows intraday traders to scalp small profits (target ~+10%) without risking large losses (stop ~–5%).
Swing Pullback to $105K–$110K → Build Partial LEAPS Accumulation
Concept:
LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) are long-dated call options (expiration >1 year) that give exposure to BTC upside with limited capital outlay.
How It Works:
Wait for pullbacks ($105K–$110K) to start accumulating LEAPS.
Buy deep-in-the-money (DITM) or slightly OTM calls expiring 12–18 months out.
Stagger entries (partial allocation each dip) to reduce timing risk.
This provides leveraged upside exposure but limits downside risk to the premium paid.
Why Hedge Funds Use It:
Cheaper way to get long-term exposure without tying up large capital.
Reduces portfolio drawdowns in volatile assets.
Hedgeable: they can sell shorter-term calls or buy puts against LEAPS to adjust exposure dynamically.
Key Differences
The current BTC structure offers a low-risk entry window with defined downside and +9–12% swing upside potential. Watch $106.8K—holding this zone validates bullish sentiment; a break would signal a reload opportunity at $103K.
This analysis blends technical structure with institutional-grade risk planning, which is ideal for both short-term traders and mid-term investors.
Disclaimers:
This is not financial advice. Always speak to a certified money manager before making any financial decisions. This analysis represents the daily musings of an intraday trader.
Statement of Uncertainty:
(Fail-Safe Rule)
This analysis verifies that the provided text uses legitimate financial concepts, terminology, and theories correctly within the framework of technical analysis. However, the accuracy of the market predictions themselves cannot be established. All financial forecasting is inherently speculative and subject to significant uncertainty. The outcome of the described scenarios is not knowable in advance.
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