Bitcoin Breakout Trading Plan: BTC NY-Open Strategy Around 93k–104k (2025-11-17)

Bitcoin NY-Open Breakout Trading Strategy: A Risk-Managed Playbook for Riding BTC from 93k Support to 104k Targets

Technical Analysis contained in this post was performed manually by Andrew Jodice of Markets, Liberty, & Discipline. He’s studied and blends Al Brooks’ theory, Richard D. Wyckoff’s theory, and Charles H. Dow’s theory to conduct his analysis, and implements Al Brooks’ strategy to execute trades.

Executive summary

This week’s Bitcoin playbook is built around a very specific idea: if buyers can push price from the 93–96k range into a clean breakout through 96k during the New York stock market open, then there is room for a measured push toward 100–102k, with an optional stretch toward 104k. If that breakout does not set up cleanly, the plan is simple: do not force trades in the chop, protect capital, and wait for a higher-quality opportunity.

The entire plan is framed around a few core concepts:

• Bitcoin is treated as a liquid, highly volatile cryptocurrency that trades continuously, but we choose to focus risk during the New York stock market session when equity flows and macro signals are most active for many traders. (Investopedia)

• The key structural zones for this playbook are:

  • Support 1 (S1): 93,000–93,500

  • Mid-range / chop: 93,500–95,500

  • Breakout trigger (B1): 96,000–97,000

  • Target 1 (TP1): 100,000–102,000

  • Target 2 (TP2): 104,000+

  • Protective stop region: around 92,000

• We use classic support and resistance zones to define where we want to trade and, just as importantly, where we refuse to trade. (Investopedia)

• Macro confirmation comes from the S&P 500 index, the Nasdaq 100 index, and volatility gauges like the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the Cboe Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN). (Investopedia)

• Stops and position size are anchored to Average True Range (ATR), which measures typical price movement and helps set more realistic stop distances. (Investopedia)

All price levels in this article come directly from

Markets, Liberty, & Discipline

. They are best treated as a worked example or template. Before trading live, you must update the levels to match the current market structure on your own charts.

How this builds on last week’s BTC playbook

Last week’s framework is captured in the post
BTC Weekly Playbook (2025-11-09): AAVP/VWAP Map, If→Then Decision Tree, 6hr & 24hr Trade Probabilities.

That piece focused on:

• Mapping Bitcoin’s structure using anchored volume profiles and volume-weighted average price (VWAP). (Investopedia)

• A detailed “if→then” decision tree spanning multiple time horizons.

• Explicit 6-hour and 24-hour trade probability bands.

This week keeps the same spirit but tightens the execution details in three ways:

1. It defines a single primary pattern: the NY-open breakout long through 96k, with a precise support zone below and clearly defined no-trade areas.

2. It formalizes intraday checkpoints (10:00, 11:00, 14:00, 16:00 Eastern Time) so you know when to reassess instead of drifting with the tape.

3. It separates the full checklist from a compact “If X, then Y” block you can literally keep next to your chart.

Think of last week’s playbook as the map and this week’s article as a focused operating manual for one specific route on that map.

Level map for this BTC scenario

The entire trading plan hangs on a small number of price zones. Here is what each one means in plain English.

1. Support 1 (S1): 93,000–93,500

   • This is the “line in the sand” where recent 90-minute lows have been defended.

   • As long as price holds above this band, buyers still have a credible chance to push back toward the top of the prior range.

2. Mid-range / chop: 93,500–95,500

   • This is where risk-reward is poor for fresh swing trades.

   • Inside this box, price tends to move back and forth without commitment.

   • The plan is to avoid initiating new swings here. If you are not already in a trade when price is inside this zone, the default move is to stay flat.

3. Breakout trigger (B1): 96,000–97,000

   • This area is just above the recent 90-minute range highs around 96.5k.

   • A strong 30–90 minute close above 96k, with price holding above intraday VWAP, is treated as the breakout signal.

   • The goal is to enter a long within this band once the breakout is confirmed.

4. First target (TP1): 100,000–102,000

   • This region represents a “return to value” toward prior value-area lows and points of control from higher-timeframe profiles.

   • Practically, it is where you expect many traders to take profits after a successful breakout.

5. Extended target (TP2): 104,000+

   • This is the stretch goal.

   • It roughly corresponds to a two-unit reward (2R) relative to the suggested 4k stop size.

   • You only aim for this if the tape is strong and there is no obvious sign of exhaustion.

6. Protective stop region: around 92,000

   • This is about 4,000 points below a 96k entry.

   • The idea is to use a stop distance in the range of 0.7–1.0 times the recent ATR so you are not shaken out by “normal” volatility but are out if the breakout thesis fails.

To use these levels in live trading, you would rebuild them using your own charting tools, combining horizontal zones and any volume-based support and resistance you are tracking. (Investopedia)

Decision tree: BTC NY-open breakout long

This decision tree is structured to mirror how you move through a trading day in real time: first you check the overall environment, then you evaluate location on the chart, then you look for a valid breakout signal, and only after that do you think about entries, targets, and exits. If any required condition fails at a given step, you drop down the “no trade” branch and preserve capital.

You can think of the branches in three layers:

1. Pre-trade filters (time window, macro, and volatility)

2. Setup validation (levels, structure, and breakout quality)

3. Trade management (targets, failure conditions, and end-of-day risk)

1. Time and macro filter

   1.1. Is it between 9:30 and 10:00 Eastern Time, when the New York cash equity session is opening?
   • If no → Do not apply this specific New York-open playbook. Wait for this window or use a different setup.
   • If yes → Go to 1.2.

   1.2. Are the major United States equity indices supportive?
   • Check whether the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index are both trading positive versus their cash open by roughly half a percent or more. These are your broad risk-on or risk-off gauges. You can review their behavior using standard index trackers or futures, and you can refresh yourself on what these indices represent here: S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index.
   • If both are solidly green → Go to 1.3.
   • If one or both are clearly red → Take the conservative path and skip the breakout long. Reassess later in the day.

   1.3. Are volatility conditions calm enough to take directional risk?
   • Look at volatility gauges such as the Cboe VIX for the S&P 500 and the Cboe VXN for the Nasdaq 100 to see whether they are flat or easing versus the prior close. For background, see VIX and VXN.
   • If VIX and VXN are not spiking intraday → Go to 2.1.
   • If either is surging sharply → Skip the breakout long. Treat the environment as hostile for new risk.

2. Location and structure filter on Bitcoin

   2.1. Where is Bitcoin trading relative to the key zones?

   • Is Bitcoin in United States dollar terms trading between 93,000 and 96,500?
   • Has the 93,000–93,500 support band held recently, without a fresh, powerful breakdown?

   Branch:

   • If Bitcoin is below 93,000 after a hard breakdown through support → Stand aside. The “reversion higher from a defended floor” story is off the table for now.
   • If Bitcoin is above 96,500 and already pushing strongly toward 100,000 before you can plan the trade → Treat the move as late. Either significantly reduce the size you are willing to risk or do not take the setup.
   • If Bitcoin is roughly between 93,000 and 96,500, and 93,000–93,500 has not been cleanly lost → Go to 2.2.

   2.2. Is Bitcoin trading inside the mid-range chop zone, 93,500–95,500?

   • If Bitcoin is stuck inside 93,500–95,500 with small candles and no clear direction → This is the congestion box. The default decision is: no trade. Stay patient and wait for a breakout attempt.
   • If Bitcoin is above roughly 94,500 and is leaning into the 96,000 area with impulsive candles rather than drifting sideways → Go to 3.1.

3. Breakout signal quality

   3.1. Has Bitcoin broken and closed above the 96,000 trigger?

   • Watch a 30-minute to 90-minute chart around the New York open.
   • You want to see a bullish candle that:
   – Trades up through 96,000,
   – Closes above 96,000, and
   – Holds above your intraday average price benchmark, such as the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), rather than immediately falling back under it.

   Branch:

   • If the move above 96,000 is full of long upper wicks, closes back under 96,000, or drops below VWAP immediately → Treat it as a failed or low-quality breakout. Do not enter. Go back to 2.2 and wait.
   • If there is a clean close above 96,000, with price holding above VWAP and macro filters from step 1 still supportive → Go to 4.1.

4. Entry and initial risk

   4.1. Entry zone and order placement

   • If the clean breakout conditions are satisfied, plan your long entry between 96,000 and 97,000.
   • This is your breakout zone: you are buying strength, not trying to bottom-fish a dip.

   4.2. Stop-loss placement and position size

   • Place your initial protective stop near 92,000, or slightly below the most recent structural swing low that underpins the breakout.
   • Use a volatility measure like Average True Range to sanity-check this distance so it is in proportion to typical recent movement.
   • Decide how much you are willing to lose on this trade as a dollar amount, and then size your position so that the distance from your entry (for example, around 96,000) to your stop (around 92,000) corresponds to that predefined risk. For a primer, see risk management.

   Branch:

   • If you cannot size the trade within your risk limits while using a reasonable stop near 92,000 → Skip the trade. The opportunity does not fit your risk budget.
   • If you can size the trade comfortably within your risk limits → The long position is now active. Go to 5.1.

5. Target management and intraday checkpoints

   5.1. First target zone (TP1) and partial exit

   • As price moves in your favor, your first key area is 100,000–102,000. This is where you expect many participants to realize gains and where prior value-area lows and points of control often sit.
   • When Bitcoin trades into 100,000–102,000:
   – Take at least half of your position off to realize profits.
   – Move your stop for the remaining size up to breakeven or tighter, such as around 94,000, to protect against a full reversal.

   5.2. Extended target zone (TP2) and runners

   • If momentum is still strong near 100,000–102,000, with no obvious heavy selling:
   – Consider leaving a small “runner” portion of the position on, with a stretch target around 104,000.
   • If momentum is clearly stalling or reversing near 100,000–102,000:
   – Prioritize protecting realized profits over chasing the final increment. It is acceptable to close most or all of the position here.

   5.3. 11:00 Eastern Time checkpoint

   • If, by around 11:00, Bitcoin is still holding above 96,000 and is trending toward 100,000 with constructive price action:
   – Keep the position with a tightened stop (for example, near 94,000) and let the trade work toward your targets.
   • If, by 11:00, Bitcoin has fallen back into the 93,500–95,500 mid-range and printed a 90-minute close inside that box:
   – Treat this as a failed breakout. Exit the trade or cut position size aggressively rather than hoping for a full recovery.

   5.4. 14:00 Eastern Time checkpoint

   • If, by early afternoon, Bitcoin is stuck below the 100,000–102,000 target zone with fading momentum:
   – Take more profits or close the trade. The probability of a clean continued breakout is dropping.
   • If Bitcoin is grinding higher with higher lows and constructive candles:
   – Continue to trail your stop under the prior 90-minute low, giving the trade room to extend, while still locking in a meaningful portion of the gains.

   5.5. 16:00 Eastern Time risk control

   • As you approach the United States equity cash close around 16:00:
   – Decide explicitly whether you want to hold any position size overnight into a market that trades 24/7.
   • If you are not clearly above the 100,000–102,000 target zone with strong structure:
   – The conservative decision is to flatten most or all of the position and go into the overnight session flat.
   • If you are clearly above 100,000–102,000 with powerful structure and you choose to hold a small runner:
   – Do so with a stop that secures a large portion of the realized profit, understanding that gaps and sudden moves can still occur at any time.

6. No-trade and stand-aside branches

Throughout the decision tree, several conditions will push you onto a “no trade” or “stand aside” branch:

• Macro is not supportive (equity indices weak, volatility indices spiking).

• Support at 93,000–93,500 has already broken decisively and Bitcoin is trading beneath it.

• Bitcoin is stuck in the 93,500–95,500 congestion box with no decisive breakout attempt.

• The breakout above 96,000 is weak, quickly rejected, or does not hold above VWAP.

• The required stop distance cannot be funded within your pre-defined risk budget.

Whenever you hit one of these branches, the correct action is to preserve capital and wait. The purpose of this decision tree is not to ensure that you are always in a trade. Its purpose is to make sure that, when you are in a trade, you entered into the trade for clearly defined reasons with a complete plan for entries, exits, and risk before entering!

Condensed “If X, then Y” block

If you want a single page you can tape next to your monitor, this is the distilled logic.

1. If between 9:45 and 10:00 Eastern Time:

   • BTC is above 94,500,

   • Breaks and closes above 96,000 on a 30–90 minute bar, and

   • SPX and NQ are up while VIX and VXN are not spiking,
     then consider a long in the 96,000–97,000 region with a stop near 92,000, first target at 100,000–102,000, and optional stretch toward 104,000.

2. If BTC is holding between 93,500 and 95,500 at 10:00 or 11:00 Eastern Time with no decisive break and mixed macro signals, then stay flat and protect mental and financial capital.

3. If BTC reaches 100,000–102,000, then take at least half the position off, move the stop up to breakeven or tighter, and only keep a smaller runner toward 104,000 if the trend remains convincing.

4. If after entry BTC falls back into 93,500–95,500 and prints a confirmed 90-minute close inside that band, then treat it as a failed breakout and exit or reduce materially instead of waiting and hoping.

5. If by 16:00 Eastern Time you are still holding size and BTC is not trading firmly above the first target region with a clear, healthy trend, then flatten most or all of the position to control overnight risk.

Risk management and position sizing

A trade plan is only as good as its risk process. Here is how to think about this setup in practical risk terms.

1. Define your risk per trade in currency, not in contracts

   • Decide how much you are willing to lose if the stop at around 92,000 is hit.

   • For example, if you are comfortable risking 1% of a 50,000-dollar account, that is 500 dollars of risk.

2. Use ATR to sanity-check the stop distance

   • Average True Range (ATR) measures how much an asset typically moves over a chosen lookback period. (Investopedia)

   • If the recent ATR on your chosen timeframe is, for example, 3,500 points, then a 4,000-point stop is in line with normal moves and less likely to be hit by random noise alone.

   • If ATR is much smaller than the stop distance, you may be taking more risk than necessary. If ATR is much larger, your stop may be too tight.

3. Translate risk into position size

   • Position size is roughly:

     • Size = (dollars you are willing to lose) ÷ (distance from entry to stop, in dollars per coin or per contract).

   • Keeping the example:

     • Risk per trade: 500 dollars

     • Entry: 96,000

     • Stop: 92,000 (distance = 4,000)

     • Size ≈ 500 ÷ 4,000 = 0.125 BTC equivalent exposure

   • Adjust for your instrument (spot, futures, perpetuals) and contract specifications.

4. Avoid stacking correlated risk

   • If you are also trading other cryptocurrencies or high-beta tech names that move with Bitcoin, treat them as part of the same risk cluster. (Investopedia)

   • Do not allocate 1% risk to BTC, another 1% to a correlated crypto, and another 1% to a highly correlated stock without recognizing that you have effectively concentrated your exposure.

5. Respect the daily loss cap

   • Decide in advance how many full-R losses you are willing to take in a day or week.

   • Once that limit is hit, step away from the screen and protect your decision-making ability.

When to stand aside

One of the most important parts of this playbook is knowing when to do nothing.

• Inside the 93,500–95,500 mid-range, price is telling you that buyers and sellers are still debating the next move. There is no need to be involved until one side clearly wins.

• If SPX or NQ are sharply red, or volatility indices are surging, you may see deceptive BTC moves that reverse quickly. Standing aside in those conditions often protects more capital than any single trade can make.

• If S1 at 93,000–93,500 has recently broken with force and BTC is still trading below it, the context has changed. This particular “breakout long back to value” idea no longer applies. Forcing it after the structure has shifted is how traders turn one small, controlled loss into a larger drawdown.

In other words, this is not “buy every dip near 93k”. It is “wait for the right mix of price, time, and macro context, and do nothing if that mix never shows up.”

How to practice this playbook without risking capital

Before you put real money behind any structured plan, it helps to rehearse it.

1. Pick a sample of past days where BTC traded near these zones.

2. On a replay or static chart, walk through the checklist:

   • What was BTC doing at 9:30, 10:00, 11:00 Eastern Time?

   • What did SPX, NQ, VIX, and VXN look like on those days?

   • How often did a clean 96k breakout lead into the 100–102k region versus failing back into the mid-range?

3. Log the outcomes in a journal, including:

   • Whether the entry criteria were satisfied.

   • Whether the targets were reached and how quickly.

   • How large a drawdown each trade experienced before moving in your favor.

This kind of structured review is a simple, low-tech way to check whether a setup behaves roughly as expected without pretending you can predict every outcome.

Glossary

This section briefly defines key terms used in the playbook, with links to longer references if you want to go deeper.

• Bitcoin (BTC): A decentralized digital currency that uses blockchain technology and trades globally around the clock. (Investopedia)

• Cryptocurrency: A broad category of digital assets, including Bitcoin, that rely on cryptography and distributed ledgers instead of central banks. (Investopedia)

• Support zone: A price area where buying interest has repeatedly stepped in, making it harder for price to move lower. Often identified using historical lows and support and resistance analysis. (Investopedia)

• Volume-weighted average price (VWAP): An intraday benchmark that combines price and trading volume to show the average price paid over a period, weighted by how much traded at each price. (Investopedia)

• Average True Range (ATR): A volatility indicator that uses recent highs, lows, and closes to estimate how much price typically moves over a given period, helping traders set more realistic stops. (Investopedia)

• S&P 500 index (SPX): A major U.S. stock index composed of 500 large public companies, often used as a broad measure of U.S. equity performance. (Investopedia)

• Nasdaq 100 index (NDX): An index of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth names. (Investopedia)

• VIX and VXN: Option-based volatility indices measuring expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively. Elevated readings often correspond to periods of market stress. (Investopedia)

Legal disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment, trading, or financial advice. The levels, examples, and scenarios described here are illustrative and based on past data and assumptions that may no longer apply to current market conditions. Trading Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and derivatives involves substantial risk, including the risk of losing more than your initial investment. A large majority of active traders and short-term speculators lose money over time. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions and for managing your own risk. Before making any investment or trading decision, you should conduct your own research and due diligence and consult with a qualified, licensed financial professional who understands your personal financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance.