BCH UPDATE (follow up)
BCH UPDATE (follow up)
5/11-5/12
The wick down that stopped shy of the previous, both highlighted by the yellow arrows indicates a continuation of uptrend within this cycle.
The purple level is a point of polarity. We need to come above it, hard close the bottomside body of an accumulation candle overtop of it on the weekly, to gain it, which will then establish it as a support moving forward.
Time will tell.
UPDATE:
Here is the Daily view, where we can see the distinct confines of the range were working in. As you can see, by each wick down (lowest point in down trend, prior to pivot) we are currently laddering up against this Daily trend, and have failed to hard close the topside body of a distribution candle below it.
This is a good sign, for now.
I firmly believe we will see very close to the 130 target, but we must also consider what BTC is doing, as it genuinely drives market action from a “Market-Analysis” standpoint, where we consider the driving forces behind moves for alt coins.
If BTC is failing, most others will follow suite. Not perfectly, but in general this is true.
On the 4hr, we seem to be moving up to test the 4hr resistance, and as it is currently untested, it will most likely reject. We would be looking to find support at somewhere between the 114-115 price range after rejecting that 4hr resistance.
If we do, that would be the successful ladder up, allow for an attack of the 12hr point of polarity. Upon further inspection, I believe this is the more accurately the level in which we need to overcome and hard-close, vs the 120 level I suggested earlier today.
An important factor in the succession of this move up, we need to hold the 4hr up-trend which is colored yellow, and successfully break out of the 4hr down-trend. If it’s not clear from the visual, we have a stacked 4hr resistance with the 4hr down-trend, which also acts as resistance.
My main concern is that we have attacked a critical valley at 107.15, which indicates the move up is breaking down. Considering it is on the 4hr hour, it is particularly relevant to this chart/analysis.
You will 9/10 see a substantial rejection of a level like this (valley/break level). However, this is not the valley for the larger move on a higher timeframe, as that would actually be at 105.09.
I’m going to suggest that we should still be ok if we do not test or go below that level, and if we do, the reaction will likely be violent.